37°F

Another Winter Storm To Begin 2014

Here's what to expect as more snow nears.
Another round of light to moderate snow will affect northern New England once again.

In what appears to be a never-ending pipeline of snow event after snow event, another one is upstream and taking aim for New England. So far in Burlington this winter, there have been 22 days with at least a measurable snowfall accumulation. A typical winter through November and December usually generates 16. While the number of events has been high, the accumulated snow has not been necessarily. Using Burlington's data, snowfall to date through December 31 is 21.7", -1.6" from the average and -12.8" compared to last year at this date.

The next best chance of snow will be Thursday and Friday. This will be a near-miss for the Champlain Valley and the northern halves of Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire. However it will be more of a hit for southern New England, including far southern VT/NH. 
                        DISCUSSION
Two areas of low pressure will evolve into one stronger storm. The first, a low pressure scooting from southwest Canada and the northern Midwest U.S. Tuesday will interact with a second low pressure area along the Gulf of Mexico. In terms of a big blockbuster snow event, we'll miss this opportunity because the two will strengthen into one well offshore and closer to Bermuda. However atmospheric conditions will be in place including a very strong, cold high pressure to the north that will help push in moisture off the Atlantic Ocean and provide a big 'fluff factor.' That means it won't take much liquid to produce snowfall. For this instance, I'm using a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio to forecast snowfall.
                        TIMING
This will be a prolonged event, about 24 hours in length and up to 36 hours for the mountains. However it will consist of a lightly, yet steady snowfall through the day Thursday. It will start late Wednesday night and by dawn Thursday, heaviest mid to late day Thursday, then wane Thursday night into Friday. The heaviest snowfall rates will be in southern VT/NH and in the mountains. 
                        SNOWFALL
Expected snowfall will range from two inches or less in southern Canada, rising totals of one to three inches between VT Rt. 2 and the Canadian border, three to six inches between VT. Rt. 2 and 4, and six to ten inches south of Rt. 4 in VT to the MA border (rising numbers farther south). It will be a light, fluffy snow, able to be swept away in northern communities but require a plow and shovel in far southern towns.
                        TEMPERATURES
Extremely cold temperatures will be here before and after the storm. Temperatures Wednesday night will dip to -10F to +5F, while rising to 0 to +10F Thursday. Thursday and Friday night's temperatures will be well below zero again, then only rise to around 0F for many towns Friday *daytime*!

-Meteorologist Steve Glazier
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