Winter arrived pretty uneventfully this morning at 5:02 AM. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, there is some light drizzle in the Saint Lawrence River Valley and roads are still damp, but mostly clear from last nights light snow.
Skies are remaining partly to mostly cloudy today, as temperatures head above average into the mid to upper 30’s with a light warm southerly wind at 5-10 MPH.
Overnight an approaching low pressure systems brings back the chance for a few light snow showers early Tuesday morning. As our winds shift to a north and westerly flow as that low depart the region we keep the chance for upslope snow showers especially through the higher terrain of the spine of the Greens. Most will see totals between a dusting to 2 inches with closer to 3-6″ for northern portions of the Greens.
High pressure tries to nose into the region Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected as temperatures climb into the low 30’s
Let’s discuss Christmas eve and Christmas Day:
Right now we are tracking a low pressure system that is moving inland over New England. Unfortunately that inland track means that we’re on the warmer side of this system… which mean rain instead of snow. BOO!
The timing is still a little bit uncertain, but what we are certain of is that there will be a period of moderate to at times heavy rain sometime between late Thursday and Friday morning. High temperatures will shoot up to near 50° as a breezy southerly wind help to push in that warm airmass ahead of the front. Rainfall totals are trending between 1-2″ and the combination of that and the melting snow (especially in southern Vermont) has us watching the rivers very very closely. The saving grace might be that our area rivers are running low for this time of year, which would help to mitigate the flooding threat.
Rain will switch over to snow briefly before the system departs, so there is a small chance for a White Christmas!
This is a medium confidence forecast, I would say at this point the uncertainty is the timing, so check back with us as we get closer to Christmas!
-Skytracker Meteorologist Haley Bouley