Good Monday evening!
It’s been a quiet start to the work week, but we have some very challenging weather moving in as Tropical Storm Isaías takes aim at eastern New York and New England late Tuesday.
For the very latest on Isaías, visit the National Hurricane Center.
As of the 5 PM Advisory from the NHC, Isaías is just 4 mph shy of a Category 1 Hurricane as it spins about 60 miles SSE of Charleston, South Carolina. Isaías is moving NNE at 16 mph and will pick up speed early Tuesday, following a likely overnight landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina.
The uptick in speed occurs as the storm is swept up by a cold front marching through the Eastern Plains now, dragging behind a low in the Great Lakes. This, in turn, allows the storm to zip northeast, just inland, along the eastern seaboard, reaching our neck-of-the-woods by Tuesday afternoon, bringing heavy rain and strong wind gusts.
But, first, that low rolling through the Great Lakes gives us a precursor rain event with increasing clouds tonight and scattered showers to the tune of 0.25-1.00″ of rain through midday Tuesday. Low temp, mid to low 60s. Tuesday’s high temp then reaches the mid to upper 70s.
After dodging hit-or-miss scattered showers (and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm) Tuesday morning, rain becomes more widespread and moderate to locally heavy or torrential between 2-6 PM. Periods of heavy rain continue for 6-9 hours, wrapping up the predawn hours Wednesday from south to north as the storm lifts away. Rainfall totals will range from 1-4″, though higher, isolated (very, very localized) totals to 5-6″ may be possible in southern Vermont.
The rain is desperately needed with our ongoing summer drought intensifying, but it may be too much of a good thing, too quickly. Washed out roads, culvert failures and sharp rises on area streams and larger rivers should be expected. Poor-drainage or low-lying spots in urban locations may become inundated with water.
The other threat to monitor will be potential tropical storm force wind gusts. This is mostly likely throughout southern and eastern Vermont into western New Hampshire. Here, a south, then east wind will ramp up to 20-30 mph Tuesday afternoon and evening, with gusts to 50+ mph. Isolated to scattered power outages, downed tree limbs or trees and even shingled roof damage could be possible, especially throughout higher terrain. Ensure you have flashlights ready with new batteries and fill the bathtub Tuesday afternoon if you rely on well water.
Have a great night!
-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault