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Weather: Dodging showers and thunderstorms Wednesday

Amanda's Forecast Discussion

Good morning!

Some will find needed rainfall today with scattered showers as high pressure gives way, sliding off to the southeast. A few stronger thunderstorms, however, are also possible by mid-afternoon into this evening.

Early Wednesday brings a gorgeous sunrise with a solid few hours of clear (or partially clear) sky. This, before cloud cover increases with a warm frontal boundary lifting northeast. By midday, those clouds are producing scattered showers and priming the atmosphere for the later cold front passage. Dewpoint and actual air temperatures will increase. The thermometer hits the mid and upper 70s, nearing 80 degrees, with a more muggy feel as that dewpoint inches into the low 60s. South breeze 10-15 mph.

Mid-afternoon, a squall line of thunderstorms forms in western New York and races at about 35 mph into central New York. The biggest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in our immediate regions lies between the St. Lawrence River Valley and the Adirondacks before sunset, with gusts of 40-60 mph, lightning and downpours. The line will lose steam and lose it's 'umph' as the sun goes down and it zips east towards the Adirondack Coast, Vermont, and eventually overnight, New Hampshire. 

Overnight into Thursday, wrap-around moisture keeps us fairly cloudy with occasional, light nuisance rain showers - especially in northern New York and northern Vermont. It will be noticeably cooler with a steady temp in the 60s. By Friday, another ridge scoots in and clears those clouds up, bumping temps back into the 70s. This weekend, low to mid 80s and mostly sunny for both Saturday and Father's Day. Late Sunday into Monday, another cold front brings showers and possibly thunderstorms, with potentially heavy rainfall. Timing and exact impacts will be hammered out as it gets closer.

Have a terrific day!

-Skytracker Meteorologist Amanda Thibault


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