It’s another scorcher for Monday, with high temperatures climbing to near 90 degrees and breezy south winds of 10-20 mph, gusting to 30-40 mph by late this afternoon. Dew points climb into the low to mid 60s after lunchtime, which means it will feel slightly more muggy than Sunday. After a deck of high clouds this morning moves out, look for plenty of sunshine through this evening. Then, more clouds approach and we turn our attention to the northwest as a line of showers and storms picks up steam in southwest Ontario.
By 8 PM, that line of storms (associated with an approaching cold front) arrives to the St. Lawrence River Valley. The area most likely for strong to severe storms Monday night, extends from the St. Lawrence River Valley to the Champlain Valley. And the biggest threat for northern New York will be strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. The lack of instability due to the late arrival of storms, plus limited moisture, means the hail threat is somewhat lessened. Heavy rain is likely, but the quick-moving nature of the line spells out rainfall totals maxing out near just 0.5″.
By 10-11 PM, the line approaches the Champlain Valley and western Vermont. The farther east you are, the lesser the threat for severe weather is, due to the time of day and greater departure from peak daytime heating and instability – typically, mid to late afternoon. However, with this line absolutely racing eastward, strong, gusty winds are still possible. The line moves into southern Vermont, the Northeast Kingdom and New Hampshire by 12 -1 AM, and then exits off to the east.
Tuesday and Wednesday, we’re left in a cooler, somewhat unsettled post frontal air mass. Highs reach just into the mid 70s, with a few weak disturbances bringing occasional light, rain showers and a mix of sun and clouds.
Have a great day!
-Skytracker Meteorologist Amanda Lindquist