The best way to describe this weekend’s weather…wacky. It’s going to feel like late Spring, then again like late Winter over the weekend. You’ll likely see a bit of everything Mother Nature can muster, from record warmth to showers and thunderstorms, to snow and strong wind gusts. So let’s break it down day-by-day.
Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers, mainly throughout the afternoon and evening, as a warm front lifts north. There may be a few rumbles of thunder. Rainfall totals over northern New York and northern Vermont will be at just a couple tenths of an inch, but in any isolated t’storms, there could be locally higher rainfall amounts. Winds remain light and variable with high temperatures in the 40s north, to upper 50s and low 60s across southern Vermont and New Hampshire.
Showers wrap up for most, with light rain lingering occasionally along the Canadian border. Instead of dropping temperatures overnight, that mercury will climb. Most see the low 50s by Saturday morning.
Although clouds will be rather prevalent for most, there may be a few peeks of sunshine and blue sky. Temps continue to climb as gusty south winds pick up. Expect winds sustained at 10-20 mph with gusts in the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys to 30+ mph.
Saturday Afternoon & Evening:
A strong cold front surges in from the west bringing a band of moderate to even heavy rain. With minor low and mid level instability, there will likely be a few embedded thunderstorms within the squall line. Most see 0.5″ up to 1″ of rain in just a few hours Saturday evening. Rainfall totals could be higher in those t’storms.
Timing wise, expect rain over northern New York by mid afternoon, and moving into Vermont and New Hampshire after 5-6 PM. Temps top out well into the low to mid 60s in warmer valleys, mid to upper 50s elsewhere. Daily record high temperatures will fall, while monthly high temp records just set Thursday could again be broken, too. With the advancing cold front and in those t’storms, even stronger wind gusts to 40-50 mph are possible.
The cold front swings through our neck-of-the-woods very quickly, and Arctic air surges in behind it before precip wraps up. Mainly over the higher terrain of Vermont and New Hampshire, there will be a changeover from rain to a wintry mix to wet, slushy snow. 1-3″ of snow piles up over the mountains to kick off Sunday morning. Temperatures will fall far and fast behind the front, perhaps by 15-25 degrees in one or two hours!
Scattered snow showers continue over higher terrain Sunday, with partly to mostly sunny skies elsewhere. After temperatures plummet Saturday night, it’ll be hard to recover Sunday. We’ll spend most of the day in the upper 20s to low and mid 30s with a breezy west northwest wind making it feel even colder.
Early next week gets started on a quiet note with a high temp near 40 and partly sunny skies.
A Flood Watch goes into effect Friday evening through Sunday evening. The combination of record warmth melting a substantial snow pack and Saturday’s rain will likely inundate a still very frozen ground. Water levels will rise on area rivers. With ice still covering most rivers in northern New York and north of Rt 2 in Vermont, ice jams are possible. Also, overland flooding in low-lying, poor drainage spots is something that needs to monitored. Although rain on Saturday for most is 0.5″ to 1″, combined with melting snow it’s more like 3-5″ of water that has nowhere to go.
On that note, keep a close watch on flood prone areas this weekend and remember to never drive over flooded roadways. You have no way of knowing what condition the road underneath is in.
Have a great weekend despite the crazy weather!
-Skytracker Meteorologist Amanda Lindquist