Weather Blog: Keeping tabs on late-week snow

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Rain wraps up Tuesday evening with an underwhelming trace to just a few hundredths of an inch, with the Adirondacks taking top prize of two-tenths of an inch. That stubborn overcast thins overnight and it’s generally partly cloudy toward daybreak Wednesday. However, a weak little wave sneaks through Wednesday morning with a brief resurgence in clouds and a few snowflakes or raindrops (depending on elevation) could hit your windshield on the drive into work. Low temp, mid to low 30s. Southwest wind 5-10 mph.

Any early flurries or areas of drizzle, along with those clouds, zip out of here by mid-morning, leaving us with a mostly sunny Wednesday. It’s a pleasant and somewhat misleading midweek in terms of what’s headed our way, of course. But, use the quiet weather to take care of any last-minute chores that need to be done around the house to ready it for snow. Upper 30s to low and mid 40s. Light south wind 5-10 mph.

Alright, now that that’s taken care of, let’s get into the real reason you’re here. S-N-O-W. Love it, hate it, or just tolerate it, it’s on the way. A strong cold front drops south Thursday, and along it, an area of low pressure will spin up. A rain/snow mix will kick up during the day Thursday, changing to all snow by mid-afternoon as the sun goes down. Snow becomes less widespread Thursday evening and night, before tapering to scattered snow showers Friday.

This snowfall is not super big and it’s not long-lived, but being the first of the season, trouble on the roads will be unavoidable for some, especially those without proper winter tires on yet. Also, seeing as we’re so early in the season, it’s a very tough forecast to nail down. Small changes in elevation will mean large differences in snowfall totals (especially with the rain mix at the onset). The temp Thursday will briefly reach into the upper 30s, even near 40 degrees in broad valleys.

That all being said, a widespread 1-4+” snowfall is at hand. Large valleys should pick up a dusting to around 1-2″, with southern valleys remaining mainly snow-free. Jackpot totals of 4-6+” are reserved for the Adirondacks, north-central Vermont, the spine of the Green Mountains, higher terrain of the Northeast Kingdom and the White Mountains of New Hampshire north into Coos County.

This snowfall forecast may change. We’ll fine-tune it with the latest model guidance offered Wednesday, so check back for updates!

Friday, look for a few sunny breaks, but scattered snow showers linger on, too. It’ll be chilly, regardless of what’s going on overhead, though. Thursday night, we drop into the low 20s and upper teens. Friday, that temp briefly hits the low 30s, before dipping into the teens again Friday night. A brisk northwest wind of 10-15 mph on the backside of the departing low pressure makes for a brisk, raw early November stretch. Saturday, mostly sunny. Low 30s. More snow showers are then possible Sunday and Veterans Day.

Have a marvelous Wednesday!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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