Weather Blog: Coastal storm forecast track trends east into Saturday morning

SkyTracker Blog

Good morning! Happy Saturday!

We have talked for days about track uncertainty with this developing coastal storm and how a slight shift could noticeably – or even dramatically – change local impacts. Here we are on Saturday morning and that wobble to the east continues in the latest data.

Our storm is developing off the coast of New Jersey early Saturday morning and will spin north towards Cape Cod, likely passing just to the east. The heaviest precipitation will remain tight to the core of the storm, near coastal New England. There will be an impressively sharp cutoff between that heavy rain (then snow) and drier air pushing down from the northwest. In other words, mere miles will separate a plowable event from a quiet, mainly dry day.

The forecast has not changed in northern New York or the Champlain Valley. You still remain ‘on the outside looking in’ with a slight chance for mainly light rain or snow showers on the outer periphery. The forecast has been trickier, however, the farther east you are with that ‘line in the sand’ so-to-speak between the Green Mountains and Connecticut River Valley.

As of Saturday morning, Bennington, western Windham, Caledonia and Orleans counties have been downgraded from a Winter Storm Warning to a lesser Winter Weather Advisory. Snowfall totals in these spots now fall under one-half foot – with the best potential for more than 6″ still reserved for Essex County, Vermont.

In the Granite State, mixing with rain may limit snowfall numbers in the immediate Connecticut River Valley, but with more elevation towards interior New Hampshire, those totals begin to creep up. Here, isolated power outages and difficult travel should be expected as conditions deteriorate throughout the day and into Saturday night.

Sunday, regardless of whether you wake up to new snow or not, is a colder, blustery day. The wind will increase, first from the north, then northwest late Saturday into Sunday with gusts of 30-35 mph. That combined with an actual air temp in the upper 20s to low 30s will have it at least feeling more like December, even if it doesn’t look like it everywhere.

Have a great weekend!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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