Weather Blog: Heavy snow and mixed precip Tuesday morning

SkyTracker Blog

Good evening!

Unofficial high temps (hence, some of the missing numbers as the time I’m writing this blog) in our immediate region were warmer than much of the country on Monday.

And that unseasonably cold air was accompanied by significant icing and snow from the Southern Plains through the Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valleys.

Now, that storm takes aim at us here in the Northeast with a period of heavy snow, accompanied by a changeover to sleet and/or freezing rain depending on your location. Big picture, here’s what we’re looking at:

Now, let’s break it down:

Between 10 PM and midnight, moderate to heavy snow will quickly spread into our region from southwest to northeast. Snowfall rates through early Tuesday morning will approach 1-2″ per hour. This snow isn’t quite a fluffy powder, but it’s not terribly cement-like either. It’s more a run-of-the-mill 10-15:1 ratio.

The ‘fly in the ointment’ for us, so-to-speak, is a warm front lifting north out ahead of the main area of low pressure. This warm air will allow for sleet to mix with snow and then, eventually take over from south to north. The big question mark is just how far north that warm air propagates.

At this point, it appears we’ll stick with snow long enough over northern New York and northern Vermont to hit 8-12″ of snow. Approximately between U.S. Rts. 2 and 4, that snowfall total lowers to 4-8″ with more sleet pinging around by mid-morning. Those snow totals may end up smaller if warm air makes a bigger push north.

In southern Vermont and far southern New Hampshire, we get a much faster switchover to mixed icy wintry precip that may include some freezing rain, as well, with up to 0.25″ of icing – or perhaps as much as 0.5″ in the southern Green Mountains. This is where power outages are most likely to occur.

Most of our accumulation happens before midday Tuesday with a dry slot arriving by late morning to early afternoon. This is a bit of a misnomer, however, as patchy freezing drizzle is likely in lingering low cloud cover. Finally, Tuesday night into early Wednesday, upslope snow showers may re-blossom briefly before colder, drier air is quickly ushered in Wednesday morning.

The wind is not a big issue with this storm, just 10-20 mph from the north, then southeast as the warm front races north, then finally northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Up next, another storm taking shape for late Thursday into Friday and perhaps rain and snow showers returning by next Monday.

Have a great Tuesday! Stay safe!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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