Weather Blog: Keeping an eye on our next winter storm

SkyTracker Blog

Good evening!

November goes out on a quiet note, but with the new month comes a new winter storm that promises to pack quite the punch over southern Vermont and New Hampshire. But, looming question marks regarding track, intensity and snowfall totals remain.

Friday night, stubborn cloud cover finally starts to relent. That clearing is incredibly gradual, and as a result, there may be some patchy issues with freezing drizzle and black ice again. The temp drops into the mid and upper teens, before rebounding into the mid and upper 20s Saturday. A partly sunny sky in the morning trends towards mostly sunny by the afternoon. North wind 10-20 mph. Saturday night, mostly clear and cold. We’re looking at the mid-teens to upper single digits.

Sunday, the temp limps along back into the upper 20s to low 30s. The day begins quietly with some sunshine, but clouds take over as the day goes on. The meteorological setup for this one is complex, as one low-pressure system moves through the Ohio River Valley, eventually transferring its energy to a secondary low that forms off the northern mid-Atlantic coast. It’s during this process that light to moderate snow bands spread into our neck-of-the-woods.

Starting Sunday afternoon, snow spreads from southwest to northeast. It’s mainly light snow across northern New York and north of US Rt. 2 in Vermont, and from the White Mountains into Coos County, NH. Snowfall rates become more intense, however, closer to the developing storm to the south over central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire. How far north that storm tracks will determine just how far the heavier snow (and therefore, of course, higher snow totals) makes it.

For now, anticipate a dusting to 1-2″ near the Canadian border. That quickly builds as you look south on the snowfall map with more than one weather model pinpointing 12+” in the southern Green Mountains. Delays are probable Monday, especially south.

But, remember, it doesn’t all fall at once. This is a long-duration event. Snow starts Sunday afternoon or evening and wraps up late Tuesday. Also, keep in mind, with ~48 hours before first flakes fly, there is still time for the track to shift south OR north.

More details to come, so stay tuned for possible forecast changes!

Have a great Saturday!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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