Weather Blog: Let’s talk timing and totals

SkyTracker Blog

Good evening! Happy hump day!

Although, now that I think of it, the first accumulating snow event of the season should really be the week’s big ‘hump’. That’s unavoidably approaching for Thursday, with on-and-off showers sticking with us through Friday. It’s not a big storm right off the top this year, but it’s enough accumulation to slow you down and cause a few headaches. As always, let’s break it down!

Wednesday night, clouds increase, slowly, from west to east. That leaves areas east of the Green Mountains clear up until midnight to sunrise. The temp briefly drops into the upper 20s to low 30s with a light south wind. From the get-go Thursday morning, most have smooth sailing on the drive into work. Snow (mixed with rain through large valleys) gets started over northern New York and far northern Vermont from sunrise to mid-morning, filling in northwest to southeast mid-morning to midday.

During the day tomorrow, the air temp plays a bit of a game with us. We’ll quickly rebound early to our daytime highs by mid to late morning of the mid and upper 30s, to even low 40s in southern Vermont and New Hampshire. Quickly though, during the afternoon, that temp reverses course thanks to the cold front sailing by. Temps will fall into the low 30s and upper 20s by dinnertime Thursday, eventually reaching the upper teens to low 30s Friday morning. The wind, not a huge factor Thursday, shifts from the south to out of the north at 5-15 mph.

Almost as quickly as rain and snow begin Thursday morning, it wraps up late afternoon into the evening, again from northwest to southeast. With the falling temp, we’ll make a transition to ALL snow (even in valleys) but it just doesn’t last long enough to provide massive accumulation. The low itself travels from central New York around 8 AM to the Gulf of Maine by 8 PM. And, it’s compact, too, taking the snow with it Thursday night.

Friday, caught up in brisk northwesterly flow (think 10-20 mph sustained at the surface with gusts to 30+ mph), scattered snow showers stick around. Breaks of sun will be on tap, too, but snowflakes fly on-and-off thanks to lake enhancement and terrain influences. Most snow falls Thursday, but additional light accumulation of a dusting to an inch or two is possible Friday. Upper 20s to low 30s with a wind chill value in the teens or 20s. Friday night, low teens to around 20 degrees.

So, in total, we’re looking a measly dusting to 1-2″ through broad valleys. Higher terrain picks up 2-4″, with up to 6″ possible (especially north-central Vermont into the Northeast Kingdom). Mountain peaks get an easy 6-8″. Be sure to take it slow, increase your stopping distance and allow for extra travel time. Even a coating can leave you slipping and sliding!

Be safe and enjoy!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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