It’s been a quiet and crisp weekend, but a more active pattern unfolds throughout the new work week ahead. We even kick things off late Monday into Tuesday with a mixed precipitation event, including possible light ice accumulation from freezing rain. It’s by no means a major storm and we’re on the very outermost western periphery, but let’s break it down.
Sunday Night – The tranquility lingers a bit longer with a clear sky overnight and a light southeast wind at around 5-7 mph. The temp is just a tad milder than the last two nights, reaching down only into the teens or even sticking with near 20° through broad valleys.
Monday Morning – It’s easygoing still early on with slowly increasing clouds. The air temp will reach a midday maximum in the low to mid 30s, but surface temps will take longer to change, remain subfreezing due to this past weekend’s cold. That poses a problem for some by the afternoon and evening as rain spreads north. Wind, from the east at generally 5-15 mph.
Monday Afternoon – As a coastal storm takes shape to our east and lifts north, the influx of warmer air favors an initial precipitation type of rain. That rain spreads south to north from mid-afternoon on, but we will have an extremely stubborn layer of dry air in place at the onset to overcome.
Remember those surface temperatures, though? Periods of light freezing rain are likely, lasting into Monday night. An icing buildup through midnight of generally less than 0.10″ is possible, with some central and southern Vermont valleys closing in on 0.20″.
Monday Night – The low lifts to our northeast, putting us on the ‘colder air’ side. The wind, still light at just 5-15 mph, shifts to out of the north as our temperatures begin dropping into the 20s. Rain will mix with, and change over to sleet and snow.
Tuesday Morning – Widespread sleet and snow accumulates to the tune of 1-2″ over southern Vermont and New Hampshire and 2-4″ over central and northern Vermont, as well as northern New York. There is a small chance for some of these totals to creep slightly higher if the changeover happens an hour or two earlier than anticipated Monday night.
This one of those ridiculously tricky to predict storms where a track shift of fewer than 50 miles east or west, or a mistiming of a few hours in that precipitation changeover can lead to a dramatically different result in terms of icing or snowfall.
Tuesday Afternoon – Snow will taper off from south to north, pushing past the Canadian border by 4-6 PM. We reach a high temp in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Have a marvelous Monday!
-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault