Well, our messy complex “Winter” storm continues to cause forecasting woes… I put winter in quotations because for many, this thing is going to fall as mostly rain.
We are dealing with an increase in warm air filtering through the system, creating trouble with our thermal profiles… or what the temperature is as you move higher in elevations.
Here is our set up: A low-pressure system is making its way over the Great Lakes, as it does so a second low develops off of the coast, a little bit further and later than originally forecasted. The tiniest shift in the track of either of these lows could create a significant change to our forecast!
Right now, I think the higher elevations above 2000 ft. will still manage to make out with a foot of snow, but the cut off between 12 inches and 2 inches will be VERY SHARP as you fall in elevation.
Let’s go over the timeline:
Today: Expect a wintry mix of rain and snow to fall through the early afternoon. Temperatures climb to the mid to upper 30’s and winds are out of the north at 5-10 mph.
Tonight: Were quiet through midnight, after that precipitation surges in, with heavy rain falling in the valleys and mid slopes below the 2000 foot mark. Snow will generally be confined to the highest mountain peaks for the early part of this system. Waking up tomorrow morning, many won’t have any new snow accumulation.
Thursday: Rain is continuing to fall through the valleys and mid-slopes, but as the system starts to pull away and drag in cold air behind it, the cut off between the rain and snow will start to fall in elevation, with the mid slopes of Essex County and the North Country switching to over first and picking up a burst of 3-6 inches.
For the valleys, the switch over to snow won’t come until the afternoon, and at that point, the system is pulling away meaning accumulations will only range between a sloppy coating to up to 2 inches.
The other issue Thursday will be the downsloping wind on our western facing slopes from Underhill south to Danby. With winds out of the South and East between 30-40 mph and gust easily exceeding 50 mph, snapped trees and limbs and power outage are a possibility. High Wind Warnings are up for Eastern Addison County and Eastern Rutland County.
Thursday Afternoon and Evening: We are left with some lingering snow showers overnight, this is likely when the valleys will accumulate the most snow. As our system continues to shift off into the Canadian Maritimes our wind directions shift to the west, keeping the chance for upslope and lake effect snow shower in the forecast through Friday.
-Skytracker Meteorologist Haley Bouley