Weather Blog: Reminder, it’s still February

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Good evening!

Just in case you thought this string of sunny 40-50° days meant Spring was right around the corner, Mother Nature is here to remind us all it’s still February. Reality check! Snow returns as a complex storm takes shape midweek.

Tonight, clouds increase as the temp dips into the mid 20s to low 30s. Tuesday is a mainly dry day, but a weak warm front drapes itself over southern Vermont and New Hampshire and is the focus for a few late-day rain or snow showers.

Any precip should be very light with a transition to all snow Tuesday night only producing a coating to around 1″, and not very evenly. That leaves us mostly cloudy tomorrow with a high in the upper 30s to low and mid 40s, then dropping again to around 30 degrees Tuesday night.

Wednesday, a few light rain or snow showers may be possible again as the temp lifts into the mid to upper 30s. However, the real action begins Wednesday night as a strong low pressure system lifts out of the Northern Plains and spawns a secondary low that spreads rain and snow north into northern New York and northern New England.

The thermal profile with this storm, as with many before it this winter, will be extremely complex. A degree or two difference in either direction could spell the difference between mostly rain and several inches of slushy, wet snow.

For now, it appears all snow arrives after dinnertime Wednesday, mixing with rain in broad valleys as the temp just barely reaches above 32 degrees before early Thursday morning, then changing back to snow (in the form of terrain-based showers) as colder air arrives for Friday and beyond. The window of time for moderate to heavy precip is short and that, combined with anticipated warmth, will leave valleys generally under 2″. From 1000′ to 2500′, a solid 4-8″ of snow may be possible, with summits cashing in on 12+”. That is, of course, subject to change, as short-range, higher resolution models catch ahold of this storm and spit out a better picture for us. Anticipate slow traffic Thursday morning and some shoveling (or plowing depending on your elevation).

All that messy mixed precip will likely also be paired with a strong easterly wind, downsloping along western facing mountain slopes, to the tune of 35-55 mph gusts. Isolated power outages and tree damage may be unavoidable with this one.

Snow showers will linger in a typical upslope fashion through Friday but wind down just in time for the weekend. Despite all the recent warmth, the month will go out on a cold note with highs in the teens to 20s and low temps in the single digits to teens.

Stay tuned for updates! And have a terrific Tuesday!

– Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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