An area of low pressure treks west to east, north of the Great Lakes, dragging behind and south of it, a cold front. Ahead of that front, a line of showers and thunderstorms carves through the North Country tonight into Wednesday. First and foremost, Tuesday evening, clouds increase, thicken up and lower as a warm front lifts northeast through the region. That will keep the temp milder overnight, in the 60s, with climbing dewpoints signaling the arrival of low-level moisture on the heels of a breezy south wind at 5-15 mph. Tomorrow, look for a high in the 70s, tempered by ample cloud cover and rain.
After midnight tonight, the line arrives to the St. Lawrence River Valley and slices through Northern New York into the Champlain Valley, fizzling around daybreak. Periods of heavy rain and thunder are expected, though the severe weather threat is low-end, considering the time of day and lack of peak daytime heating/instability. There will likely be a lull in the action mid to late morning, with that line re-emerges and re-intensifying from the Northeast Kingdom back into the southern Champlain Valley, marching east towards the Connecticut River, pushing south of the region by sundown.
Within the line, it’s very likely we encounter embedded strong thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, heavy or torrential rain leading to localized flash flooding and frequent lightning. Hail cannot be ruled and there’s a slim, nonzero chance for a brief, spin-up tornado.
Wednesday night into Thursday, mid level clouds will quickly clear, though areas of fog likely linger. Mid to upper 50s. It’s mostly sunny on Thursday – though not too much cooler (thanks for nothing, cold front) with a high in the 70s and noticeably less humidity.
Have a great night!
-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault