Weather Blog: Short-lived sunshine, then complex winter storm

SkyTracker Blog

Good Tuesday evening!

Buckle up! There’s just one quiet weather day left before we’re in for a crazy couple of weather days that bring accumulating snow and possible icing. Let’s break this thing down.

Tonight – Clouds slowly clear, especially after midnight with temps dipping into the teens across northern New York and northern Vermont, to low and mid 20s in central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire. NW 5-15 mph.

Wednesday – It’s a day bookended by cloud cover, but filled with sunshine. Enjoy that blue sky, but bundle up to do so. Gone are the 40s, or even 30s, with a top temp in the upper teens to low and mid 20s north and upper 20s to around 30° south. Not only is it chilly and seasonable, but brisk, too, with a north-northwest wind of 10-20 mph.

Wednesday Night – Clouds roll back in again as a warm front inches closer. That warm front becomes the focus for widespread accumulating snow after midnight. Teens.

Thursday Morning – That warm front pushes north, all the way to the Canadian border, bringing widespread moderate to potentially, at times, heavy snow. Around 2-5″ of snow piles up during the morning commute, with a slug of drier air surging in from the south by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Afternoon & Evening – In that dry slot, the slushy morning snow tapers to lighter snow mixed with sleet across northern New York and northern Vermont, and light sleet or freezing rain/drizzle over central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire (where a light glaze of 0.01-0.10″ is possible). The temp nearly doubles, rebounding from the teens early, very quickly thanks to the warm front, into the 30s. Wind, relatively light from the south-southeast.

Thursday Night – In a 1-2 punch, the second round of messy precip kicks off around midnight, and lasts through the Friday morning commute. What may briefly begin as rain through central and southern Vermont and New Hampshire (and still snow over northern New York, into northwest and north-central Vermont) will change to all snow as colder air sinks south behind a cold frontal boundary. 20s.

Friday Morning – A very sticky, wet snow once again will create issues for drivers with an additional around 2-5″ possible. Snow rates may momentarily reach 1″ per hour, but this doesn’t last long. The jet stream is screaming and you’ll notice the weather changes very quickly over the course of this 48 hour period.

One tidbit of “behind-the-scenes info”, the European weather model isn’t pushing as far north with that Thursday warm front and riding on its heels, slug of drier air, as the American model. What does that mean? Well, should that verify, it would mean a longer spell of accumulating snow across northern New York and northern Vermont. And thus, larger snow totals. It’s something that warrants close watching

Friday Afternoon – After lunch, snow will retreat to higher terrain, becoming mountain snow showers by the evening. The temp may reach 30° before beginning to tumble with a light north wind.

Friday Night – Snow showers continue in the mountains. Hooray for bonus accumulation! Everyone else finds a clearing sky with a low temp in the single digits above and below zero.

Saturday – Morning clouds and flurries in the mountains; partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. Top temp in the teens.

Saturday Night – Brrrr! Below and just barely above zero!

Sunday – More clouds than sun, but overall fairly quiet. A few snow showers may be possible, but we’ll chalk it up as a quiet weekend following all of that Thursday and Friday craziness. Near 30°.

Have an awesome Wednesday! Enjoy that sun and check back again tomorrow for any forecast changes and updates.

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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