Tuesday and Wednesday were both damp days with scattered showers. This stretch of wet weather culminates in the tropical remnants of Fred providing a widespread soaking Thursday.
As of Wednesday evening, the leading edge of Fred’s heavier rain was just inching east towards the I-81 corridor from Syracuse to Scranton to Philadelphia. This rain continues lifting northeast and moves in just before sunrise. Rain will be heaviest and steadiest throughout Thursday morning, before tapering to showers by the evening. There is a small threat for a brief, spin-up tornado mainly across southern New England overnight, which we’ll be keeping an eye on locally. This is primarily a rain event for us, but gusty northeast winds are possible along the western slope of the Green Mountains.
Rainfall totals regionwide will fall between 1″ and 3″, though locally higher totals are certainly expected in areas where multiple downpours train over the same location. A Flash Flood Watch is in place locally for Essex County, NY into central and southern Vermont, including Addison, Washington, Orange, Rutland, Windsor, Bennington, Windham, Grafton and Sullivan counties until Thursday evening. Here, washed out culverts and dirt roads may be a problem, along with sharp rises on area streams. Smaller creeks could overflow their banks and water may pool in poor drainage or low-lying basins.
Drivers should expect a challenging Thursday morning behind the wheel with variable visibility as rain intensity fluctuations along their route and potentially ponding on the roadways leading to hydroplaning. Never attempt to drive through a flooded roadway. It can be difficult to judge the water depth or the condition of the road underneath – it may even be washed out.
Friday brings a drier finale to the work week, but under a partly sunny sky, it’s hot and humid. The temp soars into the mid and upper 80s, likely with a heat index value in the low 90s. Over the weekend, we stick with at least the mid 80s and a slight chance daily for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Early next week, we’re eyeing the Tropics once again. Tropical Storm Henri, churning about 235 miles southwest of Bermuda on Wednesday evening, treks north this weekend and ends up near the northeastern United States by late Sunday into Monday. Just exactly where Henri goes will determine our local impacts, if any. It’s likely the storm stays offshore, but if that’s the case, it will keep this steamy tropical air mass locked in overhead. If it takes more of a westerly path, we’re facing another round of heavy rain. Stay tuned.
Have a great night! Stay dry!
-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault