Weather Blog: Weakening Fay races by overnight

SkyTracker Blog

Good evening! Happy Friday!

Tropical Storm Fay made landfall this afternoon about 10 miles north of Atlantic City. It has already started to show signs of weakening and will become further disorganized as it lifts into the North Country overnight. Nonetheless, beneficial rain is headed our way through midday Saturday.

As of Friday evening, Fay is forecast to maintain its status as a tropical storm through the 2 AM intermediate advisory as it races north northeast, leaving eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey behind. However, the storm will essentially disintegrate into scattered pockets of moderate to heavy rain and occasionally gusty wind while it takes aim at eastern New York state and western New England.

Showers, some of which may be quite heavy, spread north overnight into early Saturday morning. However, this is a quick-mover (and again, quite ragged by the time it reaches us) and the last of the rain associated with Fay pushes north of the international border by midday. While there certainly may be sharp rises along smaller streams or a few gravel road or driveway washouts (especially through higher, more rugged terrain), anything beyond localized impacts is not expected. Widespread flooding is really not in the cards due to how dry this summer has been and thus, how low our larger rivers are currently running.

Many will find 0.5″ to 2.0″ of rain, with locally higher amounts in northern New York and southern Vermont – coincidentally, where the worst drought conditions are found. The Northeast Kingdom and portions of the Champlain Valley may end up on the lower end of rain totals as a southeast wind interacts with the Green and White Mountains to set up a shadowing effect.

Speaking of wind, most experience a south southeast breeze of 10-20 mph tonight into Saturday morning. However, across our area mountains and down to midslope spots, occasional 30-40 mph gusts may lead to sporadic, isolated power outages. Most keep the lights on.

The temp tonight drops into the 60s to low 70s, before climbing into the 80s tomorrow. Once Fay lifts north, breaks of sun are possible, but don’t plan to spend the afternoon at the beach. An unrelated low moving in from the west this time, from over the Great Lakes, brings scattered showers and thunderstorms again by mid-afternoon. Some storms may be strong to severe, capable of producing heavy rain to the tune of an additional 0.5″, frequent lightning, small hail and/or strong wind gusts.

Clouds stick around into Sunday, too, with another round of scattered rain on tap. Low temp, near 70 degrees. Afternoon high, low 80s.

Have a great weekend! Stay dry!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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