Weather Blog: Weekend forecast slowly taking shape

SkyTracker Blog

Good afternoon!

It was great to see some sun today, paired with seasonable top temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Late this afternoon, however, clouds begin to trickle back in and they thicken up overnight as a few weak pieces of atmospheric energy pass through Friday. Low temp, mid 20s to mid 30s.

Friday features a primarily overcast sky with on-and-off, generally light rain or snow showers, depending on elevation. In the Adirondacks, down the spine of the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom, a dusting to 1-1.5″ is possible. In broad valleys, snow likely mixes with rain with no accumulation, or showers fall as all rain. Upper 30s to mid 40s. South breeze 10-15 mph. Showers will trail off around 10 PM, giving way to a quiet Saturday morning – though, of course, the weekend doesn’t stay that way. Friday night low temps, low to mid 30s.

The weekend forecast is starting to come into focus as our weather models converge on, what I would call, two scenarios – that’s narrowed down from about four yesterday. We’re still eyeing all that all-important track of a developing coastal low as it crosses through the mid-Atlantic and then takes a sharp turn to the north. A faster turn north would spell more snow for eastern Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine, with a path directly over Cape Cod (scenario one). A slower turn north would pull more of the heavy snow into central and eastern Maine (scenario two).

We’re talking a difference of just about 25-50 miles. A slight shift east or west is still in play! This forecast is not signed, sealed and delivered just yet. It’s still very much in flux. But, confidence is growing.

So, here’s where we are at as of Thursday evening. I, and most forecasters, are leaning towards scenario one based on this afternoon’s model run. This would spell a very heavy, wet, slushy snowfall of approximately one-half to one foot for much of the Granite State with some of those larger totals seeping into southern Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom, too. For the rest of Vermont and northern New York, a less impressive 1-6″ snowfall seems reasonable. Of course, there are other factors (in addition to the track) such as elevation that will pull those numbers up and down.

Timing-wise, we’re looking at snow spreading north Saturday afternoon, picking up in intensity Saturday night, and tapering to upslope showers by Sunday into Monday. After that, a quiet early to mid next week is on tap with chilly high temps in the 30s daily.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for forecast updates as those elusive details become clearer. In the meantime, it never hurts to prepare for a plowable, travel-disrupting snowfall – particularly in central, southern, eastern Vermont and New Hampshire.

Have a terrific Friday!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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