Update (as of Saturday 7 AM EST)
The trend eastward continues. Expected snowfall totals in Vermont continue to drop Saturday morning as models peg the developing area of low pressure near Atlantic City as taking a more offshore track. Visit our Skytracker blog page for the latest forecast information.
Update (as of 9 PM EST)
The latest model data coming in this evening suggest another shift to the east in the storm track. This would pull more of the big snow out of Vermont. I can’t stress enough how tight the gradient is from a plowable snow to absolutely nothing. It will be a matter of just a few miles. Our local impacts will be determined by this low’s exact track, down to a mere 15-30 miles – that’s less than the width of Vermont at its narrowest point. Here’s an updated snowfall map:
Previous post (as of 6 PM EST) begins here…
Good evening! Happy Friday!
Light rain and mountain snow showers Friday evening will taper off between 10 PM and midnight, though clouds stick around keeping temps mild, in the mid 30s. There’s a break in the precipitation Saturday morning before a coastal storm zips from the mid Atlantic towards Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine, yielding a glancing blow to our neck-of-the-woods.
Starting mid-morning Saturday, snow (along with some rain in the immediate Connecticut River Valley thanks to a warm midday high near 40°) will spread north, starting first in southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. By early to mid afternoon, that snow reaches into the Northeast Kingdom. (Keep in mind, there will be a very sharp gradient between steady snow and well, nothing, from east to west. That means, it is a much quieter weekend across New York and into western Vermont.)
Saturday evening, we transition to all snow with a few very heavy bands capable of producing snowfall rates of 1+” per hour rotating back around the storm into New Hampshire and the Northeast Kingdom, in particular. During this stretch overnight, travel will become treacherous with poor visibility and snow-covered roads. Isolated power outages are possible, too. Snow will taper off Sunday morning in most areas, though lighter, upslope snow showers persist into the afternoon in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New Hampshire. Additional accumulation once the sun comes up on Sunday, though, is fairly light.
If the forecast track holds as is (and just a 15-30 mile shift east or west could shake things up entirely) Northern New York and western Vermont end up on the very outer periphery of this one. Snow totals will range from zip, zilch, zero to 1-2″. As we move east into eastern Franklin, Lamoille, Orange, Washington, Windsor and Bennington counties, 3-6″ of snow (with as always, a few locally higher and lower amounts) should be expected. Big snowfall winners on this one will be the Northeast Kingdom, New Hampshire and higher terrain of Windham county, Vermont. These are all spots that likely pick up at least one-half foot with localized totals to 10-12″. One exception, however, would be the immediate Connecticut River Valley where some initial mixing with rain may limit totals.
The other variable to consider, and it’s not a huge factor, will be the wind. Saturday night, the wind will increase out of the north to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30+. That blustery wind shifts to more out of the northwest on Sunday, adding an extra bite to an already colder day with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s. Next week is shaping up on a quieter note with several cooler-than-average days (highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s or teens) under a generally very cloudy sky.
Have a great weekend! Stay safe!
-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault