Weather Blog: Wild few days ahead of us

SkyTracker Blog

Good evening!

Buckle up! We have a wild ride in the weather world unfolding through the middle of the month. Let’s break it down, day-by-day.

Tonight, clouds roll back in and snow returns by daybreak Wednesday. The temp holds steady in the 20s, then rebounds to a midday high temp in the low 30s tomorrow. A strong cold front is the star of tomorrow’s forecast, rolling through during the day and leading to rapidly falling temperatures Wednesday afternoon.

By Thursday morning, we’re on both sides of zero by single digits. Scattered snow Wednesday may briefly be heavy and lead to sudden shifts in visibility and road traction. Around 1-3″ through midslope spots, with 3+” through higher terrain once again, in a similar fashion to Monday. Valleys, dusting to 1″. With the front sliding through tomorrow, the wind will shift from out of the south to out of the northwest, gusting to around 30 mph.

Thursday, though very cold with a near and subzero wind chill, is a quiet day with a mix of sun and clouds overhead. The temp only recovers into the teens. Then, Thursday night, it’s chilly again, in the single digits, but should be a few degrees milder than Wednesday night.

Here’s the ‘wild’ part of the forecast really takes over. This weekend is a head-scratcher. There will be a messy, very wet storm moving into the North Country, but its direct impacts are still fuzzy. The likely scenario is as follows:

Friday, scattered morning snow becomes scattered, generally light, rain throughout the day with a top temp in the upper 30s to low 40s. A strong south wind kicks up to 10-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. A big snowmelt commences. There’s a break in the rain Friday night into Saturday morning, but widespread, heavier rain starts up Saturday afternoon. The temp, never falling below the freezing mark Friday night, hits the upper 40s to even low 50s. With the rain and melting snow, area waterways will need to be monitored closely for possible flooding.

The forecast confidence is fairly high through this point, but then drops sharply for Saturday night. Colder air will fly in, but is it enough and is it soon enough, to change rain to icy precip such as freezing rain, sleet or snow. There could be significant ice accretion and snow accumulation Saturday night, especially over northern New York and northern Vermont, but it’s just to soon to place a bet on it.

Check back for updates on the forecast throughout the week as the picture becomes clearer!

Have a great Wednesday!

-Skytracker Chief Meteorologist Amanda Thibault

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