Some periods of light snow will effect regions south of Ticonderoga and Middlebury going through the late evening hours. Accumulations of a dusting to 1″ could occur by around midnight–especially more towards Rutland (VT) and Warren (NY) counties. With a snow-liquid ratio more on the order of 15:1 (vs. past storms, 10:1) it would not be out of the question to squeeze out 2″-3″ at higher elevations (Green Mtns) as this disturbance pulls by. Parts of southern VT may see a short period of moderate snow between 8PM and 1AM–especially east of the Green Mountains–which could leave most valley areas with 1″-2″ (perhaps an isolated 3″+ reading here or there). For the Burlington/Plattsburgh region, there is the possibility of some linear snow showers setting up along a “modified” arctic boundary as it drops south between 2AM and 5AM. This could also drop a quick dusting to an inch in some locations. When all is said and done, by noon tomorrow most locations see a dusting (north) to as much as 2 inches (south)…
Beyond our light snowfall tonight, we gear up for a brisk and chilly day on Tuesday. Wind chills in the late AM/early PM will be mostly in the single-digits regionwide–the trade being a good deal of sunshine as strong high pressure moves in over the region. Highs will struggle out of the teens more most locations leaving very little diurnal range in temperatures…
Tomorrow night (Wed) will likely create ideal radiational cooling conditions–especially for a time between around 9PM and 3AM when winds appear to be closest to calm. Temperatures in most locations could drop close to, if not below, zero–with the typical cold spots (e.g. Saranac Lake) -5 to -10F perhaps. As high pressure moves to our east, southerly flow begins early Wednesday morning and could result in temperatures notching up a few degrees by daybreak…
By Wednesday afternoon a southerly flow will bring temperatures back towards the mid-20’s for most of the region–with relatively calm winds for a majority of the day. By evening, winds will increase and likely hold temperatures higher for Wed night into Thursday.
Beyond Thursday we continue to monitor an arctic boundary which will usher in a piece of the polar vortex for Friday and Saturday. This boundary may be accompanied by a concentrated line of moderate snow showers or, perhaps, snow squalls as it crosses the region likely around the time of the Fri AM commute. Behind this boundary, temperatures will plummet to the lowest levels of the season–with most of the region well below zero by the evening commute on Friday. Saturday AM, most of the valley regions (closest to Lake Champlain) will be in the -10F to -20F range, whereas parts of the ADK’s will see temperatures in the -20F to -40F range! Wind chill warnings will likely be issued as times for frostbite to set in could be under 10 mins in some locations…
Please plan/prepare ahead if it is absolutely necessary to be outdoors during anytime on Friday & Saturday! Plan to wear extra layers and cover any exposed skin if outdoors for anything more than a brief time. We surely have not been used to weather like this *this season, so it is very easy to overlook the risks of extreme cold.
Have a good night!
-Meteorologist Justin Templer
