Weather: Clear & Calm...Before The Cold

Hi Folks,

A brief sample of things to come on-tap for your Tuesday night as temperatures will approach zero in most locations: Burlington & Plattsburgh likely getting very close! Calm winds and clear skies (for a time) should allow for an abrupt drop in temperatures this evening before a bit of cloud cover rolls overhead in the 11pm-5am time period.

For areas north (where the patchy cloud cover will pull out by 3-4am) ample time should still exist for temps to bottom out below zero by 7am. The other “fly in the ointment” is the question of when exactly does a light southerly breeze start stirring around after our high pressure moves east of the region. If the atmosphere starts to be “stirred” a bit after we lose the cloud cover, that could subsequently counteract an abrupt drop. Either way, at some point tonight, most of us approach temperatures between -5F to +5F…

For Wednesday, winds should remain relatively calm through the afternoon hours with skies averaging out partly sunny. At times a bit of cloud cover sourced off of Lake Ontario could roll across northern parts of the region, but it does not appear to be a day where clouds get socked into the CPV (like so many other days we have seen this season). Temperatures should respond nicely under the last breathes of our first polar airmass: most of us getting into the mid-20’s for highs…

By Wednesday night, southerly flow should strengthen as high pressure moves offshore and we start our first interactions with an arctic cold front moving southeastward–first dragging much milder air into the region behind a warm front early Thu AM. Strong southerly flow will result in winds between 15-25 mph at times on Thursday with some gusts exceeding 30+ mph in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will make it into the low to mid 30’s for most of us…

Then our eyes shift to the arctic cold front approaching Thursday night into Friday AM: timing is still to be fine-tuned, but there are still indications the frontal passage could result in some snow squalls and limited visibilities–something we will continue to monitor throughout the next 48 hours. Our latest model runs indicate the potential for a concentrated band of snow showers preceding the front in the 10PM-12AM time period Thurs-Fri…

Either way, what comes behind the front is downright frigid air straight from the North Pole. Wind chill values will sink abruptly overnight into Friday AM–already making it feel like -35F to -25F for most of the viewing area by the morning commute. By Friday evening and into Saturday, this is the type of cold where frostbite could set in within as little as 10 minutes on any exposed skin! Plan ahead and dress in layers…