A busy stretch of weather for us all as we traverse the next seven to ten days! Multiple opportunities for us to chip away at our snowfall deficit (now around 17″) while temperatures stay fairly moderate for mid-January. High temperatures largely in the low-to-mid 30’s through the upcoming weekend…

To start, tonight will be fairly quiet as a weak cold front traverses the region. Perhaps a few snow showers earlier in the ADK’s and higher terrain–then partly to mostly cloudy overnight. Temperatures: low-to-mid 20’s regionwide…

First on the roster is, of course, the system now approaching from the Midwest. By daybreak tomorrow, we expect the primary low pressure to be still west of Chicago with the main frontal boundaries pushed well in advance of the “primary” low pressure center. Rain will overspread parts of western/southern NY state by daybreak. By late afternoon/evening tomorrow, a transfer of energy is expected to the Atlantic Coast–just east of Long Island. Expect snowfall to break out areas SW to NE (ADK’s likely around 4-5pm & the Champlain Valley closer to 8pm). There is the potential for some mixing in areas such as the Saint Lawrence Valley & Southern VT (which could keep final snow totals down in those areas)…

As this secondary low pressure forms, the “parent” low pressure/upper level features will remain somewhat “stagnant” to the west–sort of drifting towards us through the overnight hours Thu into Friday. So, first we deal with the quick hitting–albeit respectably strong–snow bands from the coastal low–then we await a more questionable lingering light-to-moderate snow for the day on Friday….

Initial thoughts for the Friday AM commute are a solid 2″-4″ on the ground with most roads snow covered. The silver lining is: there should be a break between a sort-of “Round #1” of the system and “Round #2”. Ideally this would align with the morning commute–although I think it’s more in the 2AM-5AM time period. Likely a good time for road crews to make headway on whatever falls in our initially heavier snow bands (perhaps 1″-2″ p/hour for a bit).

By mid-to-late morning, we then deal with the second round of snow from the parent low. There is still a degree of uncertainty in how intense the snowfall will be throughout the midday of Friday–so, therefore, snowfall totals are a bit variable right now as well. Throughout the daytime tomorrow, snowfall maps may be revised down (or up) assuming mesoscale models display this more cohesively…

Either way, as the storm winds down Friday night most of us see a healthy dose of at least 3″-8″ of snow. Mountain peaks and areas east of the Green Mountains (and highest ADK peaks) could see 8+” in some locations where a moist NE wind will interact with the terrain. Upslope snows on the backside could also enhance totals as the system departs Friday evening.

Saturday and most of Sunday look to be “rest days”. The next system we will watch is currently in the Pacific NW and could impact our region with a moderate to heavy snowfall for Sunday night into Monday. This is the type of weather pattern the motto is: “one at a time”. So we will pivot our focus to this likely into your evening on Friday and most definitely for Saturday!

Wishing you all a great Thursday!

-Meteorologist Justin Templer