A quiet start to the upcoming week will increasingly become more active as we progress through the early and midweek period. For tonight, temperatures will remain largely stable in the mid-20’s to lower-30’s as a southerly breeze and cloud cover act to stave off any significant drop. By Sunday morning, temperatures will start out relatively mild…

For Sunday afternoon, temperatures return to above seasonal norms with low-to-mid 40’s up and down the Champlain Valley. We will have to contend with a gusty-at-times southerly breeze from the late morning period well through the evening hours–sustained between 15 and 20 mph (some gusts exceeding 25 mph in N-S oriented valleys)…

Filtered sunshine will likely be featured across the region as some mid & high level clouds roll overhead throughout most of the daylight hours. These clouds will be in advance of a weak system approaching for Monday morning into the early afternoon hours. Precipitation types with this system look to be mainly rain in the valleys as temperatures start out in the low-to-mid 30’s Monday AM. A few spots in the mountains could mix with a bit of wet snow, but little to no accumulation is expected from this first round (likely beginning in the ADK’s around 8-9AM, overspreading the CPV between 9AM and 10AM)…

Following this weak system, most of Monday afternoon will remain cloudy and temperatures will be slow to drop until after sunset. A cold start to Tuesday morning could set the stage for some light snowfall accumulations (esp. in the ADK’s and along the spine of the Green Mountains) going into the mid-to-late morning hours of Tuesday. This will be the result of yet another weak system moving across the region–promising the potential for some light snow even in the valley areas. Timing of this system will be critical as some models have it arriving earlier in the day (meaning colder SFC temperatures) whereas others bring it in during the mid-to-late afternoon. The later the precipitation arrives, the greater the chance of rain mixed with a bit of wet snow for the valleys (vs. more snow)…

Once this quick-hitting system departs Tuesday night, temperatures will drop off noticeably for Wednesday. This will set the stage for what could be a high-impact winter storm for early Thursday morning right through Friday morning. There is still too much unknown to deliver information regarding precipitation types–however it does look fairly “wet” (around 0.75″-1″ of liquid equivalent), so if it does fall in the form of snow, we could be looking at chipping away our current 20″ snowfall deficit. More to come…

Have a good weekend!

-Meteorologist Justin Templer