Good Evening, Folks:

A tough forecast for the system moving by earlier today: some northern parts of the region picking up a couple inches of snow whereas a bit further south (including Burlington & Plattsburgh) we were left with mostly cloudy skies and occasional snow flurries or drizzle. That being said, a dusting to, perhaps, an inch of snow is still possible this evening as a cold front strains out a bit of low-level moisture within the Champlain Valley…

As we roll into the overnight hours, most of the region is left with clouds as the frontal boundary works well south of the region. It is possible towards morning that skies could go partly cloudy for a time–especially further away from the Champlain Valley. Unfortunately, any morning peaks of sunshine will quickly be replaced by cloud cover once again as another weak disturbance works in from the west. Best bets at more sun tomorrow will be for S/Eastern VT and part of S. NH. Temperatures overnight tonight noticeably colder than nights prior with chillier air filtering in…

Highs tomorrow generally in the mid-20’s regionwide as we await another reinforcing shot of cold air to sink south during the evening hours of Monday–this front could spawn a few snow showers around the time of the evening commute. Accumulations would generally be on the order of a dusting to half an inch (0.5″) for most of N. NY & VT whereas parts of Southern VT may strain out an inch or possible 2″ (elevation will help increase amounts a bit) as a frontal boundary acts to enhance snowfall a bit there. Most favorable time for these snow showers is 2PM-6PM in N. NY/VT and 3PM-8PM in S. VT…

Once this boundary clears the region, we will be left with clearing skies for Tuesday AM as well as a “reinforced” shot of cold. Much drier air behind this front as well: SFC dewpoints hovering around 0F for a good part of Tues & Tues Night (if your hands are suddenly chapped, you know why!). The trade for much colder weather will be the sunshine…we should see a good helping across the region, even though a stiff northerly breeze may make it feel less-than-pleasant at times…

By Wednesday AM we see our best shot at most of the region approaching sub-zero readings for the first time this season. With the cold air in place and winds going calm Tuesday night, radiational cooling should take over and allow temperatures to fall to around 2 F even in Burlington. Most outlying areas well below zero. With winds switching into a southwesterly flow by Wednesday mid-morning, temperatures should rebound back into the mid-20’s for the afternoon.

Then, of course, there is the big story for the week: The potential for dangerously cold temperatures for Friday AM through Sunday AM. It is not a question of “whether it will be cold”…but “how cold?” that we will be pinpointing over the next 2-3 days. For Saturday night, some model guidance places downtown Burlington into an airmass -20F to -30F and other ensembles show at least -10F to -20F as a piece of the polar vortex breaks off & takes a straight shot at Northern VT…

The good news is: it will be a short-lived cold blast…likely lasting around 48 hours. The bad news is: it could be greeted with snow squalls Thursday night into Friday and make wind chills straight up dangerous for Friday afternoon, overnight into Sat AM. Temperatures on Saturday could struggle to zero in most locations. More to come, as the SkyTracker Team will be monitoring this all week!

Have a good workweek…

-Meteorologist Justin Templer