The first of two mid to late week cold fronts swings through Wednesday afternoon, bringing an elevated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. Let’s break it down.
Wednesday morning, we wake up to a muggy, mild kickoff to the day with temps in the 60s to low 70s. The sky is partly to mostly cloudy and there are patches of fog in sheltered hollows and valleys. A few breaks of late morning to midday sun are possible but don’t anticipate as much blue sky as the last few days brought us. That temp inches on up to near 80 degrees with a light south wind.
Between midday and early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the approaching cold front. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with the greatest area of concern stretching from the Adirondacks (Essex county, New York) into central and southern Vermont (along and south of approximately US Rt. 2).
Our biggest threats include very heavy rain, as much as 1-2″ of rain per thunderstorm, leading to localized flooding and strong damaging wind gusts of around 60 mph. Small hail and frequent deadly lightning are also possible. And, while not likely, a brief, weak, spin-up tornado is not out of the question.
If your afternoon and evening plans unavoidably bring you outside, be sure to have a backup plan. Be prepared to seek shelter at the first rumble of thunder, the sight of darkening skies or a weather alert for your location.
Convection will weaken as storms diminish just after sunset, but a few downpours or showers linger overnight into Thursday. Low temp, 60s to around 70 degrees again.
Thursday, the second cold front of the week arrives bringing a lesser, though nonzero, risk for a couple showers or thunderstorms. Expect a partly sunny sky with a high temp around 80 degrees. This front, however, brings big changes for the upcoming weekend.
Friday, Saturday and Sunday all play out very similarly. All three days bring comfortable high temps in the 70s (perhaps even upper 60s over typically cooler terrain Saturday) with a mix of sun and clouds. Most remain dry through the weekend, though a stay shower or two can’t be ruled out daily, especially over high terrain.
Have a great day!
-Skytracker Meteorologist Amanda Thibault